Deal-Making Patience May Prove Dish's Virtue

[Commentary] Dish Network's strategic options may be dwindling. Unless, of course, they are being whittled down intentionally.

Dish has been buying airwaves to help it transition to a new business as growth stagnates in satellite TV. So when AT&T announced plans to buy DirecTV, many saw Dish's top two potential merger partners leave the table. That neither option panned out suggests Dish Chairman Charlie Ergen wasn't as eager to do those deals. As the controlling shareholder, if he had wanted AT&T to buy his company, he could have lowered his pricing ambitions. Alternatively, if he had been interested in doubling down on satellite TV -- and was prepared to face what would likely have been steep regulatory hurdles -- he could have made an offer for DirecTV. Dish investors must then trust that Ergen has a better plan to create value. Perhaps more lucrative would be a merger between Dish and Sprint or T-Mobile US. A Dish deal for either company would accomplish the government's goal of maintaining competition. Either would also avoid the regulatory hurdles AT&T and DirecTV are likely to face because both companies operate pay-TV businesses. Dish might be waiting for Sprint to attempt a bid for T-Mobile, ready to swoop in if regulators balk. If it waits, Dish runs the risk that Sprint's bid is approved. But it could also partner with the combined company. And if Sprint's bid fails, Dish could be the beneficiary of the steep breakup fee T-Mobile would likely receive. Dish still has options on its table.