Last updated: November 21, 2008 - 3:15pm
According to Nemertes Research, Internet demand remains at a rate which could outpace capacity within the next two to four years. Similar to earlier findings in 2007, evidence compiled by Nemertes over the past year continues to point to increasing strain on the Internet's infrastructure and that by 2012, this infrastructure may not be able to accommodate the exaflood, resulting in Internet brownouts. The Internet exaflood, or exponential explosion of online content, resulting largely from new applications, video and increasingly heavy Web use, is causing slower responses and time outs and ultimately may trigger an "innovation slowdown," according to the study. If left unaddressed, the development of next generation applications, from software to interactive video, will likely be stifled as users find Internet infrastructure incapable of efficiently delivering quality content.
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Comments
An interesting observation and, of course, you know the story of Cassandra. However, we based our predictions on a numerical model that we built using the best data we could obtain from a variety of sources. We are careful to say that the Internet will not break, but we do see indications that, even now for some applications, it is slowing down. We believe, on the basis of curves our model generates, that increasing demand for high bandwidth applications will increase the stress on the Internet access layer, with general performance degradation noticeable for many users beginning in 2011.
Thanks for the comment.
Mike Jude
Nemertes
I love forecasts because someone is putting their reputation on the line. I especially love forecasts about Internet failure due to increased demand, because they've always been dead wrong.