Ad Market Recovery Won't Lift All Media

Most people in the media business are excited to put 2009 behind them, but a stabilizing or even recovering ad market won't help everyone equally, according to a new forecast by Fitch Ratings. First national broadcast TV, and then cable networks and large-market broadcast TV are likely to participate in any recovery, but some media -- print mediums, namely newspapers, yellow pages and consumer magazines -- will fall short of even their depressed 2009 levels, Fitch said. The company predicts media companies with print products will erect and then dismantle online pay walls next year. Audience fragmentation will continue but the pace of "legitimate" new media entrants will slow. Consumers aren't likely to cancel cable subscriptions to watch shows entirely online. The four major broadcast networks, including the NBC network that General Electric is selling to Comcast, will remain in 2010. But at least one could explore becoming a cable network as early as 2011, according to Fitch, which called NBC and ABC the most logical candidates.