Everybody Hertz: Spectrum Crisis by 2013

Network Neutrality may get all the headlines, but the far bigger battle brewing is the conflict over access to spectrum.

As network-connected devices such as data cards, smartphones and network-connected gadgets from refrigerators to cars proliferate; the demand for spectrum could outstrip the supply. Most experts believe we will have to rely on both technologists and regulators to meet the demands that consumers are currently placing on the mobile broadband infrastructure operated by carriers, and we'll have to do these things sooner rather than later.

The demand for mobile broadband will surpass the spectrum available to meet it in mid-2013, according to Peter Rysavy, a wireless analyst. In a report on the looming spectrum crisis that was sponsored by Research in Motion for the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona, Rysavy explains how the demand for bandwidth-consuming services used by more and more people will lead to a crappy user experience, or heavy-handed pricing and limitations on mobile application from carriers absent new spectrum allocations. Rysavy estimates that even if the government allocates new spectrum for carriers, it wouldn't be available for five to seven more years thanks to a slow-moving political process.

At the current rate of mobile broadband usage growth we will run out of spectrum well before that time. There are plenty of alternatives before we declare an airwave Armageddon. The quest for spectral efficiency through technologies such as MIMO and moving from 3G to 4G will net big gains for operators. As engineers cram more bits into each hertz, policy makers like Genachowski and members of Congress evaluating our nation's current spectrum use, will be weighing the cost of taking spectrum away from existing users, such as the broadcast television business or the Department of Defense, and reallocating it to mobile broadband. That policy discussion will involve bitter fights over the right to use the airwaves, whether or not the spectrum allocations should be auctioned off to the existing carriers, AND whether it should be unlicensed or licensed. While some argue that Congress shouldn't get involved, policy issues will be an important piece of the solution as well.

Engineers are doing their part, and Congress will need to do so, as well. By giving out spectrum too soon, industry won't have the opportunity to learn to thrive within its means and let new technology and business innovation show the way to handle the increased data consumption.