No Newspaper Growth Expected Before 2013

Declines in newspaper spending are expected to slow this year, with the market eventually stabilizing by 2013 and growth beginning in 2014. But with spending of only $36.76 billion in that year, newspapers will not come close to the $66.37 billion in peak spending the industry saw in 2005, according to the Veronis Suhler Stevenson Communications Industry Forecast 2004-2014.

The private equity firm specializing in the business information and services, education, media and business and marketing services industries foresees retail, classified and national advertisers continuing to shift spending to digital platforms "to target audiences and improve return on investment" as print circulations decline, reflecting younger consumers' migration to new electronic media. Noting newspapers' pursuit of alliances to expand into those new media, as well as changing business models that involve charging fees for online content, the report goes on to state that "weekly newspapers are no longer insulated from the migration of users and advertisers to the Web." VSS expects total newspaper spending to fall this year by 9.5%, to $37.79 billion, driven by declines in dailies of 10.6% (to $30.2 billion), in weeklies of 7.1% and digital platforms of 1.1%.