What Netflix Wants Next

Put yourself in Netflix’s shoes and ask: What kind of shows would the TV industry actually be willing to do a deal on without derailing its gravy train, the syndication marketplace? There’s a pretty logical subset of shows to target: serialized dramas.

These are the densely plotted one-hour shows like AMC’s Mad Men that don't get anywhere near the millions per episode that procedural dramas like CSI get in syndication because their episodes can't air out of order. They also don't stay on the air long enough to reach over 100 episodes, a total that guarantees buyers really pay through the nose. If Netflix scooped up serials, it could actually find itself in the position to be something of a saving grace to the TV industry that too often gets burned gambling on these shows only to make nothing on the back-end. Fortunately for Netflix, on-demand consumption actually lends itself to serialized episodes and the number of episodes is irrelevant. The smart money says this is where Netflix will be shopping to keep its momentum going in TV, which the company recently signaled accounts for half of its streams. But there could be a hitch. If you think of the seller that has the most to offer Netflix in serialized shows, it’s HBO. But look inside the trove of shows Netflix currently offers for streaming and you'll notice there’s nothing from the pay-TV king even though rivals like Showtime have licensed their programs.