Bye-Bye, PCs and Laptops

As inflection points go, the Consumer Electronics Show that kicked off yesterday couldn't be sending a clearer signal: The era of the personal computer is drawing to a close.

For an industry gathering that once showcased each new generation of desktop and laptop, this year's show is buzzing with every imaginable flavor of tablet, smart phone and mobile appliance. Welcome to the age of mobile computing. While personal computers are not going to disappear altogether, the trend lines are clear. Gartner, the market research company, predicts that by 2013 the number of smart phones will surpass PCs, 1.82 billion to 1.78 billion. And that's not counting the tablets. Gene Munster, an analyst with the global investment bank Piper Jaffray, estimates that Apple iPad sales were 14.5 million for 2010, with another million tablets sold by competitors. Sarah Rotman Epps at Forrester Research predicts that 82 million Americans will be using tablets by 2015. Access to the Internet -- a key indicator of consumer behavior -- by mobile devices also is on a strong uptick. According to a report by the Pew Research Center's Internet and American Life Project, 59% of Americans accessed the Internet on their phones last year, up from 25% the previous year. The Chinese government recently reported that nearly 300 million Chinese residents now access the Internet via mobile phones. Comcast announced on Wednesday that it would deliver cable television to the iPad and similar Android tablets later this year.

Why have smart phones and tablets succeeded when so many past challengers to the PC have failed? Computing power; Cannibalization; Competition; Creatives; Community; The Cloud; Clients; and Culture.