AT&T LTE Result on U.S. Coverage: ~ 0%

[Commentary] AT&T says it will cover 46M more people with LTE by about 2015-2016 if allowed to swallow T-Mobile. That's about 95% of the U.S. population. The net result in improved U.S. LTE coverage: 0%-2%, probably closer to 0%.

The U.S. is on track to have 94% LTE coverage in 2013-2014. Verizon alone is committed to 92%. Since Verizon and other companies plan to continue deploying after that, it's almost certain the US in 2016 will be at 96%-98% without any government subsidy or merger approval. About 98% of the U.S. is covered by towers. LTE is 2x to 4x more efficient and cheaper than what's on the towers today, so it's reasonable to expect nearly all of them to be upgraded. As AT&T President Ralph de la Vega notes, LTE has "the best spectral efficiency at the lowest cost." CEO Stephenson says the schedule will be to cover about 80% by the end of 2013, which he believes is about as fast as practical. That's on track, with thousands of towers upgraded already and service beginning this year. That leaves AT&T about a year behind Verizon, scheduled for 92% in 2013. Randall says they will then work on the next 15% and apparently will reach 95% in 2015-2016. When AT&T reaches 95% in 2016, the country will likely be at 96-98%, with Verizon easily at 95% alone. Carrier coverage will likely be highly overlapped. They all seek population density, tower availability, and road coverage. So nearly all of T's 95% coverage will already be served by others. Burstein's guess is that AT&T will provide less than an additional 1% of coverage, and probably less than 1/2 of 1%, which will round down to 0%.