Cellphone Numbers Just Don't Add Much To Political Polling

CELLPHONE NUMBERS JUST DON'T ADD MUCH TO POLITICAL POLLING
[SOURCE: Wall Street Journal, AUTHOR: Carl Bialik numbersguy@wsj.com]
Political pollsters for decades have reached people in their homes via their telephones. As of last month, the Gallup Organization started reaching people in their cars, at work, at play or in stores via their cellphones, too. Whether the company's competitors will follow, and what effect this will have on polling numbers, remains the subject of heated debate among pollsters this primary season. For polling numbers to be meaningful, those surveyed must represent the broader population. By the early 1970s, pollsters felt comfortable that dialing landline phones could suffice, as only about one in 10 homes lacked a phone line. But a year ago, 13.6% of American households had only cellphones, according to the latest government survey -- conducted door-to-door, by the way. "Essentially, you're back to pre-1970s levels in terms of coverage" by calling only landlines, says Michael W. Link, a survey-research methodologist for Nielsen Media Research. "If you don't , you're essentially playing Russian roulette with your survey results." The impact of losing cellphone-only respondents, however, may be exaggerated. Their numbers aren't big enough to budge most poll results by more than a point or two, Gallup has found. People who use only cellphones, on average, are younger, more likely to rent their homes and have lower incomes than their tethered-telephone peers. But once you adjust for age, cellphone-only users have similar political viewpoints. Although he thinks cellphones should be included, Jeffrey M. Jones, managing editor of the Gallup Poll, asks, "It's still a lot of cost and effort, and what's the payoff?"
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB120183604153434293.html?mod=todays_us_marketplace
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