Predictions for 2009

Three predictions for 2010.

Yahoo won't sell, Rupert Murdoch won't go long without buying something, and TV networks won't disappear. A lot of pundits say one or more of the four major TV networks will cease to exist in the next 12 months.

Although 2009 is expected to be as difficult an economic year as companies and individuals have experienced, the continuing entrenchment and endearment of digital interactivity suggests a glass half-full future.

Media faces a perfect storm in 2009—transitioning to a challenging new digital world and a very weak economy. Media giants will continue to move from traditional content distribution models to anytime, anywhere, content-on demand.

It's that time of year again! A time when the media industry boldly looks into its proverbial crystal ball to cast 2009 predictions. Will the economy recover? Which magazines will survive?

All the much-hyped trends for 2008 did not go exactly as planned. The colliding worlds of entertainment, media and technology remain wildly unpredictable and easily oversold. 1) Google rules the Web -- and paid search advertising in particular -- but has not had nearly as much success branching into other areas, particularly traditional media advertising like television, radio and print.

Here's what's likely to emerge in 2009: 1) Online video viewership will rise more than predicted; 2) Consumers will find it easier to copy movies than to rent or buy DVDs; 3) advertising dollars will migrate from television to the Internet; 4) newspapers will continue editorial staff cutbacks, making it harder for them to grow their Internet presence; 5) audiences will continue to fragment; 6) Webisodic content will become profitable; and 7) ad targeting will increase.

A new generation of students with vastly different learning needs is redefining expectations for classroom instruction, and a growing emphasis on school accountability is changing the role of the school district IT leader.

Mark Anderson is chief executive of Strategic News Service, a newsletter circulated to C-level tech executives. Each year he makes prognostications concerning technology and the economy.

A move by AT&T to eliminate 4% of its workforce may only be the beginning of a torrent of staff reductions and spending cutbacks in the $1 trillion telecom industry.