How the battle for the future of the Web is shaped by economics

There are two stories people are trying to tell right now about the future of the Internet. One is that we need some basic rules to make sure the Web remains open and free so that companies that depend on the Internet can grow. The other is that strict rules will discourage Internet providers from making the investments that will enhance the network for everybody. Whichever narrative wins out will go a long way toward determining what your online experience will look like in the years to come.

Although the Federal Communications Commission approved a historic set of network neutrality regulations in February, Internet providers are trying to overturn those rules in court. And if they can convince judges that the rules will cause irreparable damage to their business, the Internet providers will get a major leg up on the FCC. To bolster that case, some economists are turning to historical data about what the industry spent on infrastructure over the last couple decades. The result is a game of correlation, with one side trying to prove that regulation had little effect on investment and the other side trying to prove that it did. If you boil it down, it's a disagreement over the Internet's basic origin story. And both sides are essentially accusing each other of historical revisionism. How aggressively we regulate Internet providers will be shaped by this ideological battle. As more of our media and communications move to the Web, expect these themes to come up again and again.