Local TV Stations Are Projected Winners in Midterm Elections

The 2010 elections will be viewed by pundits as a test of the Obama administration's popularity, but to media companies -- particularly local TV stations -- it will be viewed as a welcome stimulus package.

Between increasingly unhappy (and active) voters, close congressional races and wide open gubernatorial contests, this year could eclipse 2006's record-breaking midterm spending of $2.6 billion. The economy, of course, might drag down fundraising efforts, but that could be offset by a Supreme Court ruling on campaign funding as well as the fundraising lessons learned from the Obama campaign's use of new-media tools.

More than $20 million has already been spent on 2010 TV ads in 2009, so the ad wars are well underway. And with 26 states holding primaries before July, it is unlikely that we'll see any lulls in ad spending. Further, the nation is layered with competitive races ranging from the U.S. House, where there could be as many as 70 competitive races, to the one-third of the U.S. Senate up for election. Better yet for those selling ad space, the majority of the 37 governors' races are currently without incumbents running for reelection. Ad spending on the state level will be driven in large part by those governors' races. The U.S. House and Senate races in 2010 will be the political equivalent of the national stress test for the health of the Obama presidency going into 2012.