Prospects for the 113th Congress

[Commentary] Three forces fuel today's gridlock in Washington.

• First, divided party control of government raises the bar against major policy change.
• Second, legislative parties have polarized over the past half-century, even though Americans remain centrist in their policy views.
• Third, stalemate is fueled by bicameral disagreement.

What do these trends portend for the new Congress? In many ways, the new Congress should look like the old one. Some of the incessant partisan fighting might lessen now that the president no longer faces the challenge of reelection, but elections always loom large for members of the House and a third of the Senate, so pressures from the parties' activist bases will continue to pull legislators to the extremes. Democrats will resist major changes to government entitlement programs, preferring to resolve the country's fiscal mess by raising new revenues through the tax code. Republicans will continue to push for spending cuts on discretionary and mandatory programs, rejecting moves to tax the wealthy to reduce the deficit. In other words, prospects for a grand bargain over taxes and spending remain dim. Legislative stalemate creates few winners and comes at high cost. By delaying action on the nation's long-term fiscal needs and policy priorities, Congress undermines public confidence and threatens the nation's economic health and public welfare now and into the future.