TV Auction Moving, But Could Still Be Derailed

[Commentary] Can you feel it? I can. The momentum for the Federal Communications Commission incentive auction is building. It was fueled by Preston Padden and his band of broadcasters eager to cash out. The Expanding Opportunities for Broadcasters Coalition came up with two studies that found that the auction of the broadcast spectrum to wireless carriers would fetch at least $80 billion. That's about four times more than what the entire revenue of the local TV broadcasting business will be in 2015.

Progress toward an early 2016 spectrum auction could slow or grind to a halt. The biggest threat to that progress may be the National Association of Broadcaster's lawsuit against the FCC over the repacking of the FCC band following the incentive auction. A second possible momentum killer would be evidence that the demand for the broadcast spectrum is being grossly overestimated. Yet another momentum killer could be the politics of network neutrality. It's a long way to the incentive auction in 2016, but broadcasters and the FCC will get there, if the momentum isn't stalled by legal, financial or political friction.