September 2008

McCain invented BlackBerry

Asked what work John McCain did as chairman of the Senate Commerce Committee that helped him understand the financial markets, the candidate's top economic adviser wielded visual evidence: his BlackBerry. "He did this," Douglas Holtz-Eakin told reporters. "Telecommunications of the United States is a premier innovation in the past 15 years, comes right through the Commerce Committee. So you're looking at the miracle John McCain helped create and that's what he did." Although he doesn't e-mail, McCain told the New York Times in July that he does "use the Blackberry." Campaign aide Mark Salter added, "He uses a BlackBerry, just ours." Holtz-Eakin also pointed to McCain's service leadership of the Senate Commerce Committee, which "put him at the intersection of a number of economic interests, including the telecommunications industry." Similarly, McCain yesterday told scienceblogs.com: "Under my guiding hand, Congress developed a wireless spectrum policy that spurred the rapid rise of mobile phones and Wi-Fi technology that enables Americans to surf the web while sitting at a coffee shop, airport lounge, or public park." (Note: The Blackberry was invented in Canada.)

Financial Crisis Trickle-Down To Media, Consumers

[Commentary] The historic restructuring of debt and financial players on Wall Street will continue to have an arresting impact on Main Street, as well as on media-related companies dependent on advertiser and consumer spending in a troubled economy. Players of all sizes and sectors are hunkering down for more pounding. The impact varies, from severe disruption of ad-dependent core revenues for companies such as CBS to debt repayment issues for Tribune and Univision. A growing number of small to-mid-size broadcasters­including Young Broadcasting, Gray Television and ION Media Networks­are wrestling with liquidity pressures, according to Standard & Poor's. Still others will have trouble meeting loan covenants in a weak economy. Many new media upstarts have no stock-market exit strategy, or once-regular cash infusions. Media, entertainment, telecommunications and tech industries are also wrestling with their own vulnerable and broken business models. Recessionary and digital-driven revenue shift will clip earnings or cause some to default. On other levels, the purge of financial, transportation, auto and other major industry players will have a dramatic impact on all media advertising. Widespread consolidation means fewer companies to spend ad dollars and invest capital in technology software and hardware. It also can mean unmanageable scale. There will be less money all-around to fund the intelligent risks and creativity needed for long-term growth. Survival and stabilization are short-order goals, although opportunities will eventually emerge from the chaos. Once things settle down, everything will depend on integrating and executing new business models that need to be crafted now. The transition from static to interactive advertising is no small task. All of these adverse factors collectively will serve one good end. Companies along the broad media, entertainment and Internet spectrum will be forced to find ways to generate new income from new interactive trappings, such as social networks. They will be forced to create real value instead of relying on a continuous flood of unqualified capital to pave the way to prosperity.

How Wall Street's Black Sunday Will Affect Ad Spending

The news that three well-known firms -- Lehman Bros., Merrill Lynch and American International Group -- are either ceasing to be, being purchased or facing concerns about raising capital rocked Wall Street but so far has had surprisingly few repercussions on Madison Avenue. In fact, advertising-industry analysts are predicting little short-term fallout -- though the longer-term effects on consumer confidence could be a lot more serious. There were few immediate fears because Merrill and Lehman are tiny players in the world of media spending. Lehman's spending was trimmed in recent years, falling to $1.2 million in 2007 and accounting for only $501,900 in the first half of 2008, according to TNS Media Intelligence. Merrill, likewise, is not a huge spender: $37.1 million in 2007 compared with $38.2 million in 2006. Moreover, by absorbing Merrill Lynch for $50 billion, Bank of America looks to become an even bigger player when it comes to marketing spending. But there are still worries about the already hurting print and business-to-business sector, which are expected to be roiled by Lehman's demise, Merrill's sale and AIG's woes. Media and marketing executives looking ahead though, think the pain could easily become more widespread. Given how much damage the media and entertainment sector has already sustained during this economic downturn, though, most veterans don't see the latest news as a particular reason for despair. It certainly proved a major distraction during the day as execs dealt with fall TV and movie launches and prepped for Sunday's Emmy Awards.

Media Stocks Continue to Fall

After falling in lockstep in Monday's scary 4.5% stock-market decline, Wall Street trading was steady at midday Tuesday, but TV and cable stocks kept falling. The broad stock market was down around one-tenth of a percentage point at midday, but broadcasting stocks fell about 1.5% and cable stocks slumped around 1%. In broadcasting, Nexstar Broadcasting Group, ACME Communications and Gray Television have fallen more than the sector average. The whole broadcast sector is sensitive to advertising jitters that were magnified with Monday's sell-off. In the cable sector, John Malone-led Liberty Media was among the bigger decliners, off 47 cents at $25.37 per share, which translates to a 1.8% drop.

TV product placement dips? Sorta

According to a report by Nielsen, product placement on primetime programming for the first six months of 2008 was down nearly 15%. But even taking into account that double-digit drop, January-June viewers still experienced 204,919 "brand occurrences." And that decrease represents a mathematical average between broadcast placements, which actually jumped 12% over those six months, and a 20% decline in onscreen cable shout-outs. The report largely attributes the over-the-air increases to just two scheduling tweaks: NBC's "The Biggest Loser," broadcast's second most product-populated skein, premiered its fifth season in January rather than in its usual fall perch, while Fox's "Hell's Kitchen," which bowed in June 2007, premiered this year in April, placing more of its episodes in the spring.

Young Broadcasting, Facing Delisting, Moves To NASDAQ

Young Broadcasting, whose stock price has plummeted to below 8 cents and has been threatened with delisting, said last week that it has shifted to another NASDAQ trading market that gives it more time to raise its share price above $1. A principal reason that Young's stock price has fallen so precipitously appears to be many investors' frustration with its inability to sell San Francisco station KRON, a MyNetworkTV affiliate. But the troubled credit markets seem to have hampered a potential divestiture. A KRON sale almost certainly would lead to an increased stock price, and Young may be banking on that instead of opting to go private.

Health Content in Entertainment Television

Most viewers who tune in each night to television's top-rated sitcoms and dramas do so because they want to be entertained, but according to two new studies released today by the Kaiser Family Foundation, many of them are being educated about important health issues at the same time. In order to document how well viewers learn health information from entertainment television, the Foundation worked with writers at Grey's Anatomy to embed a health message in an episode, and then surveyed viewers on the topic before and after the episode aired. The storyline involved an HIV positive pregnant woman who learns that with the proper treatment, she has a 98% chance of having a healthy baby. The study found that the audience's awareness of this information increased by 46 percentage points (from 15% to 61%), a four-fold increase among all viewers. This translates to more than eight million people learning correct information about mother-to-child HIV transmission rates from watching the episode. The study, titled Television as a Health Educator: A Case Study of Grey's Anatomy included three national random-digit-dial telephone surveys of regular viewers of the show, conducted one week before, one week after, and ­ to test retention of the information ­ six weeks after the target episode aired. After six weeks, 45% of the episode's viewers correctly responded about the chances of mother-to-child HIV transmission - down from the high of 61%, but still three times higher than before the episode aired.

Another study released today by the Foundation and the USC Annenberg Norman Lear Center's Hollywood, Health & Society indicates that health content is prevalent on popular prime time television. An analysis of three seasons (2004-2006) of top-ten-rated prime time scripted shows reveals that six out of ten episodes (59%) had at least one health storyline, and that most of those storylines provided a strong (32%) or moderate (29%) level of educational content. The typical episode in the analysis averaged about one and one half health storylines, indicating that millions of television viewers are regularly exposed to health content.

Skype: Wireless Networks Are Not Opening Up

In a letter to the Federal Communications Commission dated Sept. 12, Chris Libertelli of Web-calling service Skype reported that he believes that U.S. wireless carriers have had a change of heart about opening up their networks to applications. Remember, in the past year, several carriers including Verizon Wireless have committed to opening up their networks to all apps and devices. Well, Skype argues that carriers are still exercising too much control over which apps and devices get a green light. "Despite the carriers' assurances, when lip service to the goals of open networks is translated into their terms of service, they continue to require their subscribers to limit the applications and devices that can be used on their networks," according to the filing, in which Skype is asking for federal regulation to ensure industry-wide compliance with open policies.

Consumers Stick to One Medium at Home

Reports of multitasking many be exaggerated. According to Mediamark Research & Intelligence data, more than half of people's time spent consuming media at home is often done exclusively with one medium. Among all adults, 55 percent of their at-home newspaper reading occurs without involvement with other media. With magazine reading, 53.6 percent is exclusive. For the Internet, the figure is 53.8 percent, and for TV and radio, the percentages are 49.4 and 28.3, respectively. When multitasking occurs, it's most likely to be a combination of TV and another medium. Nineteen percent of at-home magazine reading is done while watching the tube, for example. With Internet use, it's 17.4 percent, while with newspaper reading, it's 15.3 percent.

Social networking is big driver on web

Social networking sites are the hottest attraction on the Internet, dethroning pornography and highlighting a major change in how people communicate, according to Bill Tancer, a self-described "data geek." He's analyzed information for over 10 million web users to conclude that we are, in fact, what we click, with Internet searches giving an up-to-date view of how society and people are changing. Some of his findings are great trivia, such as the fact that elbows, belly button lint and ceiling fans are on the list of people's top fears alongside social intimacy and rejection. Others give an indication of people's interests or emotions, with an annual spike in searches for anti-depression drugs around Thanksgiving time in the United States.