May 2012

Internet Video To Keep Eating More Bandwidth: Cisco Study

Internet video consumption will more than quadruple from 2011 to 2016, as billions of users worldwide -- with more devices, on increasingly faster connections -- will drive overall network traffic usage to unprecedented peaks, according to Cisco Systems' latest annual network forecast.

By 2016, the amount of annual global Internet-protocol traffic will be 1.3 Zettabytes (equivalent to 1.3 trillion Gigabytes), according to the Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Forecast for 2011-2016. By comparison, the total amount of IP traffic estimated from 1984 at the dawn of the Internet through the end of 2012 was 1.2 Zettabytes. "Even we have to take a step back and be astonished at the volume of traffic," Cisco VNI senior analyst Arielle Sumits said. By 2016, Cisco expects there to be 3.4 billion Internet users -- about 45% of the world's projected population, according to United Nations estimates. The average fixed broadband speed is expected to increase nearly fourfold, from 9 Megabits per second in 2011 to 34 Mbps in 2016. And video is the biggest chunk out of the overall rapidly expanding pie.

Here’s what our web addiction looks like in 2016

We’re on pace to generate 1.3 zettabytes of data in 2016, about four times more than we create today, according to the latest data out from Cisco.

To put that in perspective, Cisco helpfully tells us that’s more than 38 million DVDs streamed in an hour. Or, you can think of it as a 1 followed by 21 zeros. The telecom gear maker offered up its fifth annual assessment of future broadband growth on fixed, managed and wireless networks around the world. And to no one’s surprise, as individuals, households and countries we’re just going to keep boosting our broadband use. Around the world last year people generated 30.7 exabytes of data per month from a total of 10.3 billion connections. That’s a lot until you compare it to Cisco’s projections of the world generating roughly 110 exabytes per month from 18.9 billion connections. That’s a ton of growth, so what do the stats really tell us? Broadly it tells us the growth comes from existing users doing more online while toting more devices, and also from people around the world without connections today who are joining the World Wide Web. Cisco estimates that on average, individuals generated an average of 11.5 gigabytes of data per month. That’s a lot until you compare it to Cisco’s projections of an individual consuming an average of 32.3 GB per month. And as the chart below shows, we’ll be online and so will our vehicles and homes.

Maybe it’s time to rethink how we fund broadband

[Commentary] Last week’s announcement that a $200 million broadband investment fund is in play courtesy of Gigabit Squared is part of a quiet trend of communities searching for new ways to fund broadband. Technologies such as desktop PCs, local area networks and mobile applications moved from their infancy to full-blown industries thanks to venture capitalists, investment firms and angel investors who drop big-to-huge bucks on promising startups. For better or worse, these investors drove industries to maturity. Expect the investment scenario for broadband to be different. Few view broadband networks as startup businesses, but maybe more should. Many communities believe broadband is critical infrastructure, the same as water, electricity and highways. Enlightened communities also know these networks are business operations, even when in pursuit of the common good. The networks must generate revenue, though the financial goal for community-run and muni-run networks is more sustainability for the infrastructure rather than profit.

Apple digs in on e-book lawsuit, says Jobs’ quotes will ‘speak for themselves’

In a new pushback over its role in an ongoing e-book controversy, Apple said that Steve Jobs’ widely reported quotes on Amazon and book publishers “will speak for themselves.”

The company also denied once again that it conspired to fix prices. Apple set out the claims in a legal filing this week that responds to a sprawling class action suit. The suit seeks millions on behalf of consumers who allegedly overpaid for e-books after Apple and publishers changed to agency pricing. The new filing is part of a complicated legal two-step in which Apple and two publishers are fighting both Justice Department antitrust claims and a parallel suit in which class action lawyers and state governments seek money. Apple’s latest arguments comes after a colorful filing last week in which it said the Justice Department’s case was “fundamentally flawed” and mischaracterized Steve Jobs’ description of an “akido move” on Amazon.

Is Philanthropy Print Journalism's Last Hope?

[Commentary] It was startling to read last week that the Ford Foundation was awarding a two-year grant of $1.04 million to the Los Angeles Times for the hiring of reporters. The money will be used for coverage of immigration issues, including the Korean and Vietnamese communities, the California prison system, and the border region with Mexico, and to staff a bureau in Brazil.

Ford has long been a supporter of journalism, with an emphasis on public broadcasting and nonprofit enterprises. But this grant represents a different approach: support for a newspaper currently in bankruptcy that has endured years of cutbacks in its resources and revenues. While still the most formidable news organization in California, the Los Angeles Times carries the stigma of its acquisition by Sam Zell, the real estate magnate whose purchase of the Tribune Co. in 2007 was a disaster that remains unresolved and in litigation. Foundation grants are not generally thought to provide support for institutions in trouble, but rather to give backing to innovation and enterprises solely operating in the public interest. While journalism in all ways aims to perform the traditional accountability function that is the ne plus ultra of news gathering, the Los Angeles Times is a business. And, despite all of its reverses in recent years, it is still measured in the marketplace by an ability to pay its way using revenues from circulation and advertising.

So what explains Ford's grant, an unprecedented gesture of largesse to a once-mighty profit maker fallen on hard times?

Scary times ahead for smartphone vendors, says analyst

The rest of 2012 will be very challenging for smartphone makers as they struggle to find ways to differentiate their "black slabs," Richard Kramer, managing partner at Arete Research, said during the opening address at the Open Mobile Summit conference in London.

Smartphone sales will total between 750 million and 800 million units and add up to over US$230 billion during 2012, according to Kramer. However, Apple, Samsung Electronics and HTC are the only vendors making money, he said. "This problem is going to get worse in 2012," said Kramer. The underlying issue is that the phone vendors have a massive issue with differentiation, while new entrants are expecting lower profit margins. The mobile phone industry has in the past three years moved to making products that for the average consumer all look like flat black slabs, Kramer said. The end result is that the PC market model is coming to smartphones, according to Kramer. At the same time costs, including patent licensing and marketing, are going up for the phone vendors, which makes the current situation even scarier, he said. To save themselves, vendors are going to have to change.

How political ads can elect a president

[Commentary] Television spots are the medium through which the modern campaign is fought. The success or failure of the candidates at producing effective advertisements could have a huge influence on the outcome in November. Each side of the campaign will spend inordinate amounts of money to pay for 30-second advertisements -- which will also be spread through the Internet -- that seek to define the message of the campaign of 2012 and the terms of the fight.

[Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University]

Where's the outcry on the UN push to regulate the Internet?

The bureaucrats at the United Nations, prodded by developing countries and exemplars of democracy like Russia and China, have hit on an enticing new way to control global communication and commerce: They want to regulate the Internet.

It's one of those rare issues in this heated campaign season that is uniting the political left, right, and middle in Washington. Business leaders beyond Silicon Valley would be smart to sit up and take notice, too -- and fast. American opponents are being seriously outpaced by United Nations (UN) plans to tax and regulate that are already grinding forward in advance of a December treaty negotiation in Dubai. "Having the UN or any international community regulate the Internet only means you're going to have the lowest common denominator of 193 countries," notes Richard Grenell, who served as spokesman and adviser to four US ambassadors to the UN between 2001 and 2009. The conduit is a little known UN agency called the International Telecommunication Union, which coordinates cross-border issues such as radio spectrum and satellite orbits. At the December 2012 World Conference on International Telecommunications in Dubai (bureaucratically titled the WCIT-12) the ITU will consider expanding its purview to the Internet. That may be six months away -- but ITU working groups are already laying the groundwork. Behind the effort are efficient censor machines like China, and autocrats like Russian President Vladimir Putin, who last year declared his desire to establish "international control" of the Internet. These are "not exactly bastions of Internet freedom," as Florida Republican Senator Marco Rubio put it during a hearing last month. "Any place that bans certain terms from search should not be a leader in an international Internet regulatory framework."

Next steps on Network Neutrality

When it comes to the issue of “net neutrality” I want to ensure that Internet users can always choose full Internet access – that is, access to a robust, best-efforts Internet with all the applications you wish. But I don’t like to intervene in competitive markets unless I am sure this is the only way to help either consumers or companies. Preferably both. In particular because a badly designed remedy may be worse than the disease – producing unforeseen harmful effects long into the future. So I wanted better data before acting on net neutrality. I will prepare recommendations to generate more real choices and end the net neutrality waiting game in Europe.

First, consumers need clear information on actual, real-life broadband speeds. Not just the speed at 3 am, but the speed at peak times. The upload as well as the download speed. The minimum speed, if applicable. And the speed you’ll get when you’re also watching IPTV as part of your triple-play bundle, or downloading a video on demand via a premium “managed” service. Plus, you should know what those advertised speeds typically allow you to do online
Second, consumers also need clear information on the limits of what they are paying for. Clear, quantified data ceilings are much better than vague “fair use” policies that leave too much discretion to Internet Service Providers (ISPs). They allow low-volume users to look for deals that suit them. And they incentivize ISPs to price data volumes in ways that reflect costs, and so support investment in modernizing networks as traditional voice revenues decline.
Third, consumers also need to know if they are getting Champagne or lesser sparkling wine. If it is not full Internet, it shouldn’t be marketed as such; perhaps it shouldn’t be marketed as “Internet” at all, at least not without any upfront qualification. Regulators should have that kind of control over how ISPs market the service.

But I do not propose to force each and every operator to provide full Internet: it is for consumers to vote with their feet. If consumers want to obtain discounts because they only plan to use limited online services, why stand in their way? And we don’t want to create obstacles to entrepreneurs who want to provide tailored connected services or service bundles, whether it’s for social networking, music, smart grids, eHealth or whatever. But I want to be sure that these consumers are aware of what they are getting, and what they are missing.

Broadband availability inches up again in Minnesota

Connect Minnesota says the percentage of state residents with access to what the state officially thinks everybody should have by 2015 now stands within an eyelash of 60 percent. That's up 3 points from last fall and, with three years to go on the goal the state legislature established, seems not too bad, even hopeful. But a geographic imbalance remains.

Benton

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