May 2016

Risk assessments, computer programs that produce a score based on the likelihood of person committing a future crime, are increasingly common in courtrooms across the nation. They are used to inform decisions about who can be set free at every stage of the criminal justice system, from assigning bond amounts to even more fundamental decisions about defendants’ freedom.

ProPublica obtained the risk scores assigned to more than 7,000 people arrested in Broward County (FL) in 2013 and 2014 and checked to see how many were charged with new crimes over the next two years, the same benchmark used by the creators of the algorithm. The score proved remarkably unreliable in forecasting violent crime: Only 20 percent of the people predicted to commit violent crimes actually went on to do so. When a full range of crimes were taken into account — including misdemeanors such as driving with an expired license — the algorithm was somewhat more accurate than a coin flip. Of those deemed likely to re-offend, 61 percent were arrested for any subsequent crimes within two years. We also turned up significant racial disparities. In forecasting who would re-offend, the algorithm made mistakes with black and white defendants at roughly the same rate but in very different ways.The formula was particularly likely to falsely flag black defendants as future criminals, wrongly labeling them this way at almost twice the rate as white defendants. White defendants were mislabeled as low risk more often than black defendants. Could this disparity be explained by defendants’ prior crimes or the type of crimes they were arrested for? No. We ran a statistical test that isolated the effect of race from criminal history and recidivism, as well as from defendants’ age and gender. Black defendants were still 77 percent more likely to be pegged as at higher risk of committing a future violent crime and 45 percent more likely to be predicted to commit a future crime of any kind.

AT&T announced a revised set of financing plans for its smartphone customers that shrink the options available from four to two. Called Next and Next Every Year, the new plans will replace the Next 12, Next 18, Next 24, and Next with Down Payment options starting on June 8th. While simpler and possibly easier to understand than AT&T's confusingly named (for example, the "Next 24" plan is actually a 30-month payment plan) existing options, the new plans remove options that allowed customers to pay off their phones in fewer installments. The Next plan is essentially the Next 24 plan with a new name. It splits the cost of a device over 30 equal installments and lets customers "upgrade" by trading in their device after 24 payments. Next Every Year is closer to the Next 18 option, but with upgrades available sooner. It is a 24-month payment plan with trade-in upgrades available after 12 months. Gone is the option to pay off your phone in less than 24 equal payments, as provided by the outgoing Next 12 plan.