Tim Maurer

[Commentary] In the future, who -- or what -- will govern the Internet? The answer to that question could also shed light on one of the biggest foreign policy questions of the decade: As power is shifting among states and diffusing, what is the future of the world order?

That first question was in the spotlight in 2012, right around the World Conference on International Telecommunications (WCIT) in Dubai. It was the first time in nearly a decade that the topic of Internet governance attracted major international media attention.

The conference became the latest showdown of the ongoing struggle over the future of the Internet with some countries led by Russia and China seeking greater governmental control and others supporting an Internet governance model driven by civil society, the private sector, and governments. Caught in the middle are the “swing states”-- countries that have not decided which vision for the future of the Internet they will support. Yet, the outcome of this debate ultimately depends on these states -- the ones that have not yet firmly staked out a position and who represent a significant share of the world’s population and economy. While it is not surprising to find India, Brazil, and South Africa among the key 30 swing states, some of our findings raise interesting questions.

Ultimately, this Internet governance debate is embedded in the larger systemic shift -- the reshuffling of the world order. Take Brazil and India, two of the countries that have attracted greater attention during this debate not only with regard to the future of the Internet but the future of the international order. Mexico, Indonesia, Turkey, Ghana, and Malaysia also are on our list and deserve more attention. Their behavior shapes what norms and institutions will govern our lives in the future, including finance, post-2015 development goals, international security -- and the future of the Internet.