Wayne Friedman

Broadcast networks, on the road to completing much of their upfront deal-making, are operating in a marketplace that is still concerned about weak pricing and volume gains.

"Broadcast is pretty much done; cable is moving slowly," says one veteran media-buying executive.

One issue of greater concern may be overall upfront broadcast volume. Initially, upfront broadcast volume was estimated to be down 1% to 3% from the $9.2 billion totals pulled in in 2013. Some of that money, according to executives, is being shifted to cable networks, which are poised to hit the $10 billion level in upfront advertising deals.

Network cable advertising sales executives believe much of the cable upfront process will take place soon. Some media executives are still alarmed that broadcast networks might be looking at greater overall volume losses in the upfront -- down about 5% versus 2013. This is due to viewership erosion, as well as TV marketers' efforts to shift money to cable networks and some digital video platforms.

But C7 still remains a wild card, other executives say -- depending on the number of upfront TV advertisers shifting to a C7 Nielsen viewing deal-making metric from C3. A marketplace shift to a C7 rating guarantee to marketers -- C7, the average commercial ratings plus seven days of time-shifted data -- could boost overall volume for national TV broadcasters about 2% to 3%. This will come from adding four days of viewing data from the current three days of time-shifted viewing metric.

The value of TV is declining in some areas. For example, the “perceived value” of free, ad-supported Web sites that air TV shows is slipping, as well as pay TV monthly subscriptions.

Subscription video services have a slightly higher value. According to Hub Entertainment Research, 64% of users say free, ad-supported Web sites such as Hulu either are of excellent or good value. This compares to a 68% number a year ago. Multichannel video program distributors' subscriptions -- cable, satellite or telecommunications -- are now at a 45% number, down from 49% in 2013. Likewise, premium cable network subscriptions are down -- at 28% versus 32% in 2013.

Still, when it comes to the likelihood of keeping a traditional pay TV video package a year from now, 71%, definitely/probably will. Only online streaming subscriptions overall are up: 49% versus 46%. The study says Netflix is growing as an alternative to DVR usage. Now, 18% say DVRs are a “default” when it comes to TV programming versus 20%, while Netflix has improved to 14% from 13% in 2013. When it comes to the value of discovering TV shows, 19% of respondents said they began watching a TV show “because of posts you saw from friends on Facebook” -- the highest result of eight social-media questions.

An explosion of marketers' messaging from TV, radio and online platforms doesn’t necessarily mean they receive full -- or even half of -- consumers' attention for those advertisements.

For example, of the 160 TV commercials each person is exposed to on a daily basis -- 75 minutes in total when considering the five hours a day spent watching TV content -- only 30%, or 23 minutes a day, gets “full attention” for those ads.

This comes from a recent analysis from Media Dynamics, a media research consultancy. Ed Papazian, president of Media Dynamics, says that 50% to 60% of the audience is only partially attentive when a commercial appears on the screen. Papazian says his estimates come from a number of third-party researchers, such as Simmons and MRI, as well as other studies.

Papazian tells Media Daily News: “The main point is that far from being bombarded with ads, as many seem to believe, most consumers are perfectly capable of controlling their intake of unwanted advertiser sales pitches by zapping the ads, by absenting themselves -- in the case of TV -- or by simply not paying attention.”

Removed from its big overall 18-49 win in 2013, CBS -- long known as one of the most consistent networks by TV marketers -- will work a slightly different model this season, adding NFL Football on Thursdays and eight new shows in prime time.

Football, as well as year-round development, will accelerate a change for CBS when it comes to original programming.

“You are going to see some nights where there will be essentially no repeats through the season,” says Les Moonves, president/chief executive officer for CBS, speaking at a morning press conference before its upfront presentation.

Going forward, CBS says more original programming launching throughout the year will create new definitions for the industry. “We are officially retiring the phrase 'midseason',” says Nina Tassler, chairman of CBS Entertainment.

Looking to shift more media executives' minds to digital from TV, Google says nearly one-fifth of those watching YouTube are watching less TV.

A UK study found 19% of YouTube viewers are paying less attention to TV and that 17% are watching less TV overall. Three percent have stopped subscribing to premium cable networks and 1% have stopped watching TV entirely.

Some 1,583 UK respondents ages 13-64 were included in the study from June to September 2013: 1,171 were YouTube users, 412 were non-YouTube users.