The 2016 campaign: A tech forecast

Mark Bernstein, who works for a small new media developer and publisher, takes a few guesses at what the new media and tech landscape will look like 4 years from now -- and how it might affect the 2016 presidential campaign.

We’ll continue to depend more and more heavily on the Web.

• Raw traffic numbers will be concentrated at a few incredibly large sites.
• The most effective political persuaders will continue to be small, independent sites with a distinctive personal voice and specialized expertise. We’ll depend more on writers like Nate Silver, Juan Cole, and Nouriel Roubini, and less on horse-race pundits.
• The personal media landscape, today dominated by Facebook and Twitter, will continue to change rapidly. We’ll continue to use something like these, but the features, technologies, business models, and companies may all change.
• The separation of the political Web into Left and Right blogospheres will continue, and will continue to afflict the Right with a cacophony of infotainment and a dearth of grounded ideas.
• Web advertising will continue to decline in effectiveness, but will remain common. Lots of alternative business models will support writers, reporters, and activists.

Concentration of Web and other media delivery in the hands of phone, cable, and satellite providers will provide ample scope for sabotage, vandalism, and chicanery. Cable franchise deals may emerge as a significant issue in town and neighborhood politics, and a variety of dirty tricks may disrupt campaigns.