Analysts: Don’t expect big windfall in broadcast incentive auction

[Commentary] As the Federal Communications Commission puts the finishing touches on the rules for the 2016 broadcast incentive auction, media and telecommunications analyst Todd Juenger issued a downbeat report, damping down the hopes of any broadcaster who might be anticipating a big windfall from the sale of spectrum to the FCC. In an analysis of what the Big 4 (NBC, CBS, Fox and Disney) might get in the upcoming auction, Jueneger, senior analyst for AB Bernstein, wrote that “our most optimistic estimate for CBS, Fox, and NBC (Comcast) is $1.3-$1.5 Billion….far below what…some companies have said is possible.” Juenger notes that his top end estimate for CBS of $1.3 Billion is “much lower than the $2 Billion estimates their CFO mentioned” during the Q4 2014 earnings call. Juenger also isn’t counting on FCC Chairman Tom Wheeler’s repeated assurances that the auction will take place in 2016. “…There appears to be little reason why AT&T and Verizon would not try to delay the auction” to delay a big hit to their cash holdings and to slow down any expansion of competitors.