AT&T's Busted T-Mobile Deal Leaves Three Question Marks

In 2011, AT&T and Verizon Communications cemented their wireless dominance by boosting their share of the industry's operating profit to 80%, according to Fitch Ratings. A ragtag band of rivals has one more shot to break it, now that AT&T has ended its nine-month battle with U.S. antitrust regulators and dropped its $39 billion deal to buy T-Mobile USA from Deutsche Telekom AG.

Consumers will continue to choose from among four national wireless carriers, but will the industry admit new competitors Hedge-fund-backed LightSquared Inc. has grand plans to provide cheap wireless broadband but sits on a chunk of the airwaves that government-ordered tests show interfere with GPS devices; further testing over the next few months could determine whether the company will be able to launch its service. Satellite-TV operator Dish Network Corp. expects to hear from federal regulators soon about whether it can buy a chunk of the airwaves for its own national mobile network. And struggling mobile-broadband company Clearwire Corp. will upgrade its network to a more common standard. Then it needs to find new customers. If these upstarts make their numbers work, consumers might see new options. If not, Verizon and AT&T could use 2012 to run away with the market.