The Biggest Night in $1.3B Presidential Ad Race? Eagles vs. Saints on ESPN

Of the $1.1 billion in broadcast TV ad spending and $200 million in local cable ad spend that Kantar Media's CMAG now expects to see in the presidential race, we're nowhere close to the halfway mark.

This $1.3 billion estimate assumes no further expansion of the battlefield, currently consisting of eight states plus lower-level bipartisan skirmishing in Pennsylvania and Republican forays into Michigan and Wisconsin. The estimate will rise if any of these three states become as competitive as the Great Eight, or shrink if any of the 11 drop off the list. If the 2012 air war has lacked major milestones, big-event advertising and government oversight until now, you'll see all of the above as we transition to late summer and the all-important fall. Every "watch list" item previewed below bears the stamp of the unprecedented nature of this air war: more money flowing from more deep-pocketed advertisers into fewer markets, resulting in prohibitively priced inventory.

If you're a retailer or bank that relies on local spot advertising, your agency presumably has prepped for the months ahead, but even the most experienced agencies may not have anticipated six months ago that $1.3 billion in presidential advertising alone would be squeezed into -- at this writing -- just 67 DMAs.

• AUGUST 2: That crack in the planet you just heard was the sound of 200 TV stations posting their political ad sales on the Federal Communications Commission's website for anyone to see -- including CMOs and agencies for non-political advertisers.
• AUGUST 3: In an air war that is almost entirely focused on economic issues, the release of any new economic data, such as the July jobs report, becomes potential ammo for ads.
• AUGUST 12: The Olympics end.
• AUGUST 27-30 AND SEPTEMBER 4-6: In the "old" days, say 2004, when the conventions were held in July and August, the start of the Republican confab would mean some ratcheting down of Democratic TV advertising and vice-versa. But with the 2012 conventions taking place within 71 days of Election Day, all advertisers will keep at full throttle.
• SEPTEMBER 5: Romney's exponentially larger ad budget will in fact be one of the three most significant events of the fall air war, but it's just the precursor to the other two: the start of regular season football and the lowest unit rate.
• SEPTEMBER 7: The third shake-up of the fall occurs on Sept. 7 when the lowest unit rate kicks in, 60 days out from Election Day.
• OCTOBER 3-22: TV news executives have been unable to halt the increasing use of their footage and anchors in campaign ads. There's no reason to think the campaigns won't "borrow" clips from the three presidential debates slated for October if that usage will give them some sort of advantage.
• OCTOBER 24: The World Series isn't football, and viewership does depend somewhat on the line-up, but the Series and the preceding division and league championships nevertheless draw big live audiences of a key demographic.
• NOVEMBER 2: Advertisers will have five days to make hay of the October jobs report.
• NOVEMBER 6: Some stations used to refuse to sell political advertising on Election Day, believing it was tacky.