Broadband Slowdown Won’t Be So Slow

Evercore ISI media analyst Vijay Jayant predicts that while Q3 broadband subscriber increases will be lower than they have been in the past few quarters, it won’t be that dramatic of a decline. This comes just as cable operators are preparing to release their Q3 results. Comcast is expected first out of the gate, with its Q3 earnings report due on October 28, followed by Charter (Oct 29), Altice USA (Nov 4) and Cable One (Nov 4). Jayant’s optimism is fueled by the relative scarcity of strong new broadband competition — he estimated that only 35 percent of cable households have a fiber-to-the-home competitive option, and fixed wireless availability is still in the low single-digit percentages. In addition, recent pricing changes for cable wireless offerings (which can only be sold with a broadband connection) should help stabilize high-speed internet subscriber rolls. On the cable side, Jayant was encouraged by low non-pay and move churn. The analyst wrote that government programs like the Emergency Broadband Benefit Program and child tax credit payouts may have helped keep non-pay churn in check, while move churn, despite the red-hot housing market, may be lower due to renters who have opted to stay put.