Broadband Speeds Post-Reclassification: An Empirical Approach

[Commentary] Recently, without any reference to the Net Neutrality debate, the cable industry trade association NCTA made the unsurprising observation that broadband speeds in the US continue to rise, as they always have. Seeing all things through the lens of Net Neutrality, Public Knowledge Senior Vice President Harold Feld immediately laid claim to the trend, asserting that the data in NCTA’s post supports the FCC’s reclassification decision. According to Feld, the speed trend confirms that the “Title II Virtuous Circle” is “totally working” because “the rate of increase has accelerated since the FCC adopted the Title II Reclassification Order in February 2015.”

Feld sets up a direct test of the wisdom of Title II reclassification based on the pace of speed increases following the 2015 Open Internet Order. An empirical question requires an empirical answer. Using the Akamai speed data, Ford subjects Feld’s “theorem” to a battery of statistical tests. Without exception, the data reveal a statistically significant decline in the rate of average broadband speed increases for the US subsequent to the 2015 Open Internet Order. Ford finds that “but for” the FCC’s 2015 Open Internet Order, US broadband speeds would have been about 10% higher—or about 1.5 Mbps faster—on average. Thus, in direct contradiction to Feld’s claim, reclassification appears to have significantly retarded expected broadband speed increases.