Census predicts big fall in responses

Turbulent political and economic times roiling the nation are expected to diminish initial participation by households in next year's Census despite a $326 million marketing blitz that far outspends previous Census campaigns. Mounting mistrust of government, rising identify theft and record numbers of foreclosures could discourage people from mailing back Census forms next year, according to the Census Bureau. A Census analysis shows that about 64% of households are likely to mail in their forms without additional prodding from Census workers — down from 67% in 2000. That could mean 4 million more doors to knock on. Getting people to fill out and mail the forms is crucial to keeping costs down. Sending Census workers door-to-door — sometimes more than once — is expensive: $80 million to $90 million for every additional 1% of households. If 36% of forms are not returned, workers may have to visit 47 million homes. Cost: $3 billion.