Do the Math: Broadcast, Cable Network Parity Play

[Commentary] The mass audience reached by the Big 4 broadcast networks will be eroded by general entertainment cable networks in less than five years, when rivals seize more of their triple advertising dollar, pricing and viewer edge. That isn't a guess, according to Bernstein Research -- it's a mathematical certainty. The outcome will be dramatic. Agencies and advertisers will rebuff pricey bottom-rung television programs as they continue to shift more of their spending to cable, the Internet and wireless mobile platforms. Protracted economic weakness will complicate this shift and weaken overall ad spending. At the same time, domestic broadcast TV producers and syndicators will find it more difficult to secure traditional prices for their programs. Major cable networks will continue to wrestle with the high cost of original production that has long dogged broadcast networks -- and they all will need to resort to cost-cutting to maintain profits. One thing is clear: Major cable networks are on the upswing, while broadcast networks ABC, CBS, NBC and Fox collectively are on a certain decline.