Don't Count Out AT&T --The Takeover Isn't Dead Yet

[Commentary] With any other company, in any other merger, the action the Federal Communications Commission announced on Nov 22 would be the signal that a deal is dead. But when one of the parties involved is AT&T, the rules don't apply.

AT&T isn't any other company. It has unlimited resources to continue the case for as long as it wants, which will have the effect of freezing T-Mobile's deployment and marketing. That was the point of the takeover to begin with. AT&T wanted to eliminate a competitor. Now they are almost doing the same thing. Meanwhile, AT&T can claim a victory of sorts. Even while fighting the Justice Department and the FCC, it will get something it really wants -- some high-value spectrum for its wireless services. As the consolation prize, the FCC said it would approve, with some as-yet-unknown conditions, AT&T's $1.9 billion purchase of spectrum from Qualcomm. The bottom line: AT&T can continue to hamstring a competitor and will get more spectrum to gain advantage over the rest of the market, even if it has to spend a few million more to keep the takeover going long past its expiration date. AT&T knows when to hold 'em and knows when to fold 'em. But not before it is ready to do so and not until after it has achieved its objectives. (Nov 23)