Forecast 2007
FORECAST 2007
[SOURCE: MediaWeek, AUTHOR: various]
Here's some looks at what 2007 will be like for various media. Broadcast TV: expect more shows to debut online instead of on air; as the networks increasingly use broadband to create buzz for their new shows, the importance of on-air lead-in and lead-out scheduling will diminish. Cable TV: While last year saw a number of cable networks breaking ratings records with their original programming efforts, cable continues to lag far behind the broadcast nets in terms of its share of prime-time ad dollars; minute-by minute Nielsen ratings may change the way advertisers buy time on cable channels. Interactive Media: Barring a calamity, most expect the Web to experience another period of robust—if slightly less hyper—growth in 2007, as total spending will likely exceed $20 billion; the biggest questions—and the hardest ones to answer—involve the sea changes that occur annually in this segment where unpredictability rules. Technology: The coming year will be dominated by the release of new operating systems from Microsoft and Apple, but the fun doesn't end there.
* Broadcast TV (John Consoli)
http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=10035...
* Cable TV (Anthony Crupi)
http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=10035...
* Interactive Media (Mike Shields)
http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=10035...
* Putting more on the line online
[SOURCE: Los Angeles Times]
http://www.latimes.com/business/printedition/la-fi-predict2jan02,1,98344...
(requires registration)
* Magazines (Lucia Moses )
http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=10035...
* Media Agencies/Research
http://www.mediaweek.com/mw/news/recent_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=10035...
* Technology (Olga Kharif, BusinessWeek)
http://www.businessweek.com/technology/content/dec2006/tc20061228_363228...
* The Year Ahead in tech (SF Chronicle)
http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/01/01/BUG46NA91I1.DTL
MEDIA GROUPS ARE GRAPPLING WITH DRIFT OF REVENUE TO THE WEB
[SOURCE: Financial Times, AUTHOR: Aline van Duyn]
How many more readers and advertisers will online rivals lure away and what can print publishers do to keep them? Newspaper circulation has been in decline since the 1970s following the widespread introduction of news coverage on television. But the falls have accelerated in recent years as more people turn to the Internet for instant news, often provided for free. In addition, the shift in classified advertising to the Internet as sites such as Craigslist make this service available, also often free, has gathered pace, hitting newspaper revenues. Advertising shifts appear to have hastened last year, leading many forecasters to cut their 2007 expectations. Merrill Lynch, for example, expects a 2.6 per cent gain in overall US advertising spending this year but anticipates that newspaper advertising revenues will be down 1.5 per cent. Analysts at Lehman Brothers are even more pessimistic: newspaper revenues are forecast to fall 4 per cent this year, due in part to a migration of property advertising to the web.
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/207365a2-99b1-11db-8b6d-0000779e2340.html
(requires subscription)
AILING MUSIC BIZ SET TO RELAX DIGITAL RESTRICTIONS
[SOURCE: Reuters, AUTHOR: Antony Bruno]
The anti-digital rights management (DRM) bandwagon is getting more crowded by the day. Even some major-label executives are pushing for the right to sell digital downloads as unprotected MP3s. In 2007, the majors will get the message, and the DRM wall will begin to crumble. Why? Because they'll no longer be able to point to a growing digital marketplace as justification that DRM works. Revenue from digital downloads and mobile content is expected to be flat or, in some cases, decline next year. If the digital market does in fact stall, alternatives to DRM will look much more attractive. Revenue from digital music has yet to offset losses from still-declining CD sales, and digital track sales remain a cause for concern. Month-over-month download figures were largely flat through 2006, even in the face of year-over-year gains. If the expected post-holiday spike in download numbers that has occurred in the past two years is weak, look for the glass on the panic button to break.
http://today.reuters.com/news/newsArticle.aspx?type=internetNews&storyID...