The future of TV is arriving faster than anyone predicted

[Commentary] Many in the television industry have long predicted eventual death for the box, driven in part by a rapid migration by pay TV providers (including fiber and satellite-based companies) to Internet standards for both video content and services, and by the enthusiastic response of consumers to a growing number of Internet-based alternatives. These include Roku, as well as Amazon, Apple, Google, Netflix, Hulu, YouTube, SlingTV, Sony, HBO and many others. Consumers, especially younger ones, are interested in defining their own video experience, mixing traditional and self-produced content and enjoying it not just on televisions but on every connected device, including tablets, smartphones and other mobile gadgets.

The rapid evolution of video stands in sharp relief to an increasingly embattled Federal Communications Commission proposal from earlier in 2016, which would force pay TV providers to develop a new, “open” set-top box within a year, and deploy replacement devices to millions of their subscribers within two years. The FCC’s plan to unlock the set-top box, as it did for Pandora, may do little more than release a lot of powerful demons trapped inside. Meanwhile, as so often happens, innovation in computing and communications technology is crafting its own separate peace, forging a new video ecosystem for consumers in the process.

[Larry Downes is a project director at the Georgetown Center for Business and Public Policy]