How Elon Musk Came to Influence the Fates of Nations

Elon Musk’s international influence poses an interesting problem for the US In a world where geopolitical leadership depends increasingly on technology, Musk ought to be one of the US’s most important assets. And yet he is a de facto independent actor. Musk owes his influence not to the control of oil, capital or private armies, but of technologies vital to economic competitiveness, national security and public opinion. NASA and the Pentagon depend heavily on Musk-owned SpaceX to get into space. As Gregory Allen of the Center for Strategic and International Studies notes, SpaceX is not like a traditional defense contractor almost entirely dependent on sales approved by the US government, which means Musk feels less obligation to align his views with Washington’s. More consequential than Musk’s independence from the US government is his vulnerability to China’s. Musk’s influence over international relations will be diluted if his influence over technology is diluted. Competitors are hard at work trying to weaken SpaceX’s market share in launch and X’s in social media. As for electric cars, now that Chinese brands have caught up, expect Tesla to be squeezed out of China’s market much as other foreign companies have been, once Beijing no longer found them useful. Musk might be less vulnerable to China when he no longer has sales there to protect.