How the FCC's TV spectrum auction could play out in San Antonio

[Commentary] To see how the Federal Communications Commission’s incentive auction might play out in local markets, let’s examine San Antonio, Texas.

I’ve crafted three scenarios: light participation in the FCC auction, moderate participation and full participation. I’ll then estimate the impact of each scenario on total viewership, share of viewership, TV ad spending, cost of TV air time, levels of cable/satellite subscriptions, and shifting of ad dollars to other media. Why San Antonio? It’s in many ways a typical U.S. market and thus a microcosm for the whole country. As San Antonio goes in this auction, so goes America.

[Stroud is a writer and a longtime media executive]