The Internet of the future will look a lot like TV

[Commentary] Almost half a century after the first e-mail crashed the communication link between the computer science department at UCLA and the Stanford Research Institute, the Internet stands at a tipping point. Now, after a wave of telecom consolidation at the turn of the 20th century, only two of the original seven Baby Bells remain, in the form of Verizon and the reconstituted AT&T.

Along with a handful of giant cable providers and satellite giants, less than a dozen companies control the overwhelming majority of US Web traffic. In the fourth quarter of 2013, the number of TV-style commercials on digital entertainment delivered to US high-speed Internet subscribers of those companies roughly equaled the number of pieces of content they appeared next to. Moreover, Web-based video ads, and the TV shows, live events and movies that they are paired with, are growing in lock step at roughly 30% a year. With both business and consumers willing to pay for a broad array of products and services, the Internet has become the world's first global medium for delivering news and entertainment. Not surprising, then, that it's started to look a lot like television -- a medium that in the US is overwhelmingly commercial (save for PBS and local public access channels, home of the original video bloggers); and soon, it will likely be far more so. A US federal court ruling in January, which struck down rules concerning how Web traffic and capacity are priced, has already begun spurring a new wave of telecom consolidation, such as Comcast's $45 billion bid for rival Time Warner Cable.

The Internet, already half-commercialized, has just been further deregulated. Given its history and current data traffic trends, if there are going to be public spaces on the Internet of the future, online consumers may have to work hard indeed to find them.