Keep It Real: Pragmatic Media Predictions For 2009

[Commentary] Although 2009 is expected to be as difficult an economic year as companies and individuals have experienced, the continuing entrenchment and endearment of digital interactivity suggests a glass half-full future. Here is a list of predictions from a pragmatist seeking the upside:

1) Television broadcasters and newspapers have their moment of truth.

2) All media will hang on and gear up for post-recession consolidation.

3) There will be big media sellers and buyers.

4) Media companies will wrestle with their legacy demons through bankruptcy, going digital, going green and infrastructure redos.

5) Only the strongest niche enterprises will survive, others may be folded into larger entities.

6) Advertisers will spend less -- even less than being predicted.

7) Major advertisers such as automotives, financial services, retail and real estate will be diminished and different when they rebound a year from now. Local media could see half of their ad revenue base wiped out in 2009.

8) Consumers continue to embrace and drive digital.

9) A new player will emerge and do for local content and services online what Craigslist did for regionalized classified advertising.

10) At least one broadcast television network will disappear (most likely CBS).