LTE may be too little too late

A new report from Unwired Insight shows that the relentless growth of 3G traffic volumes will create a 3G network capacity crisis for some mobile network operators as early as 2010. Early deployment of Long Term Evolution (LTE) will be essential, and continued growth in data consumption will create insatiable demand for LTE spectrum. 3G traffic volumes are set to increase by a factor of 20 by 2015, driven by many factors, including the increased adoption of traffic-intensive services such as mobile broadband and mobile TV services, the increased proportion of smartphones and dramatic reductions in mobile data pricing. Key findings of the new report are: 1) As 2G users continue to migrate to 3G services, the available capacity per 3G user will decline rapidly in networks utilizing HSPA, to less than 100MB per user per month in some cases. LTE will be essential to counter this decline. 2) While LTE promises peak data rates of over 100Mbps, this is only possible with wide allocations of spectrum, and even then is only experienced by a few lucky users that have particularly good radio conditions. Other users will achieve much lower data rates, so the average data rates from practical LTE networks will be nowhere near the peak values. 3) Network operators will have an insatiable appetite for LTE spectrum, to stand any chance of keeping up with forecast traffic demand. For some operators, 10MHz of spectrum will be able to support forecast traffic levels only until 2011. A further 10MHz will be needed by 2012 and another 10MHz in 2013. In addition, some operators will have to embark on major network expansion programmes to keep pace with forecast traffic levels.