Observations and Predictions about the National Broadband Plan

A few observations and predictions based on information that has emerged so far about the National Broadband Plan:

1) 100 Squared Math and Realities: Federal Communications Commission Chairman Julius Genachowski has said the plan will establish a goal of providing 100 million households (90% of the US) with 100 Mb/s connectivity. But will major carriers be interested in delivering that speed in high-cost areas? It might take the FCC allowing carriers to phase out traditional phone service. A transition to voice over the Internet (VoIP) would see the funding mechanism for Universal Service would vanish. VoIP providers, including telcos, also would have to self-organize a way of interconnecting with one another, which probably isn't the best way to help ensure that all the grammies and grampies who just want their phone to work will be taken care of.

2) The reclassification debate: If the FCC doesn't reclassify broadband, the Commission may not have the authority to create the broadband Universal Service fund. Combine that with the VoIP issues and it's easy to see why reclassification of VoIP and broadband are almost certain to be part of the plan.