Political Ads To Hit $3.2 Billion, Most In Local TV Buys

Some $3.2 billion in political advertising is estimated to hit television networks, stations and other platforms for the 2012 -- with the weight of these commercials doing creating more than their usual upset: Price hikes in TV commercials.

Media buying agency Harmelin Media expects TV commercial increases of between 7% and 15% in key election periods for non-political marketers -- especially for spot TV market in the 45 to 60 day window before a primary or general election. Within the general election window -- Sept. 7 through Nov. 6, 2012 -- it says rates are estimated to rise on average by 10%, due to political advertising. Early morning and early fringe dayparts -- those near news programming -- will have the strongest impact on rates: a projected 16% rise. It says early news, prime access and late news dayparts could see rates rise 9%. It also warns there will be heavily, then usual preemptions of existing schedules. (Political advertisers get the lowest unit rate and the ability to have the commercials inserted in place of non-political advertisers). Also there will be overall viewer fatigue from the onslaught of political ads affecting all TV advertising effectiveness during these periods. Harmelin says, by way of Kantar Media's Campaign Media Analysis, that the overall $3.2 billion in expected TV political advertising will represent a 52% increase in TV dollars versus the last presidential campaign season in 2008.