The Sprint/T-Mobile tie-up will probably be rejected. But if it’s approved…

[Commentary] To gain approval, Sprint and T-Mobile will almost surely have to make some substantial concessions to appease regulators. And those concessions may change the landscape of the mobile industry in some substantial ways. Some of the most intriguing possibilities include:

• The FCC has long demanded spectrum divestitures in exchange for approval of mobile telecom tie-ups in an effort to maintain a competitive balance, and the FCC’s recent revisions to its “spectrum screen” rules all but ensure Sprint will have to dump some of its holdings of 2.5 GHz airwaves. While there’s no telling how those holdings would be distributed, they could end up in the hands of Dish Network, which is sitting on its own pile of spectrum as it waits for an opening into the mobile market. The spectrum screen could pave the way for a tie-up between Dish and Verizon Wireless.
• Sprint Chairman and SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son has promised to start a “massive price war” if the proposed merger goes through, and the increased scale should eventually lower the combined carrier’s costs.
• Perhaps the most interesting possibility is that regulators require Sprint and T-Mobile to take on a major partner, essentially maintaining a field of four major mobile network operators. MarketWatch’s Miriam Gottfried has written that Dish is a potential candidate in this scenario, which is certainly true, and Kevin Smithen of Macquerie Securities speculated last week that Amazon – which is reportedly preparing to launch its own smartphone – might make a good MVNO partner. Additionally, both Comcast and Google are looking to deliver disruptive wireless services primarily via Wi-Fi, and both will need a cellular partner to offer truly mobile services.