TV Stations To Reap 2012 Election Windfall

Next year, White House and congressional candidates will flood television and other media with campaign messages as the 2012 election shapes up as the most expensive in history. Democrats and Republicans are already squeezing contributors because spending will soar as this is the first election in more than a decade without limits on corporate and union contributions. TV stations will benefit most: In 2010 about 75% of ad budgets went to broadcast TV vs. 7.9% for cable and 4.3% for Web destinations, according to PQ Media. But a lot could change this time out.

Here are some of the key questions:

1. How much will be spent on advertising? Perhaps $4 billion or more.
2. Will cable operators take political ads from broadcast TV? Most of the money will still probably flow to local TV stations.
3. Which states will benefit most? Florida, Missouri, Ohio and Virginia are presidential election battleground states and probably will have competitive Senate or gubernatorial contests.
4. What TV station owners will benefit most? EW Scripps, Entravision, CBS, Meredith, Media General, Sinclair and LIN Broadcasting have high concentrations of stations in states that will see a lot of spending. Barrington, Gray, Local TV, Nexstar and NVT Networks may also be big winners.
5. How well will Spanish-language stations do? They should see big increases from political campaigns.
6. When will political spending peak? Because of early voting, that's not as clear as it used to be.