What Chairman Wheeler thinks about the future of online video and the cycle of disruption

It seems distant now, but there was a time when cable companies were part of a fledgling industry struggling to gain traction against the dominant media player of the day — traditional, over-the-air broadcast TV. At roughly the same time, cellular providers were beginning to make inroads with consumers, drawing them gradually away from their old landline phones. While they may have started out as relatively small disruptors, both industries are now behemoths in the global economy. And like many in their position, they've naturally sought to preserve their power through a mix of business acumen and political strategy. It's a predictable cycle. This raises a natural question: Could many of today's new, exciting entrants — such as online streaming video companies that are contributing to big changes in the cable business — end up in the same position as the very industries they're trying to disrupt?

"Everybody grows up," said Federal Communications Commission Chairman Tom Wheeler. "My crystal ball is foggy in terms of what things look like," he said. But looking back at his own past, his grasp of the historical pattern seemed clear. "We were the insurgents," Chairman Wheeler said of his time representing cable and wireless. "And the incumbents [then] weren't terribly thrilled about this new competition that they were facing. But everybody grows up. And today, those industries are themselves facing new insurgent challenges."