Why App Stores Are Not the Business Model for the 21st Century

Companies across a range of industries are joining the App Store parade. But the widespread homage may be premature. Don't be surprised if the app bandwagon soon hits a dead end.

While others rush to set up their own stores, Apple's gatekeeper model of software distribution is being questioned by developers and industry leaders. The struggles point to the difficulties that other app stores may face, none of which should be a surprise. In the age of the Web, developers can get their programs to end users without anyone intervening, so locked-down software sales will always be going against the grain. An app store lets companies tap into ideas from third-party innovators while retaining firm control over their brands. And that's both its charm and its flaw.

The App Store's true rival isn't a competing app marketplace. Rather, it's the open, developer-friendly Web. Apple's app bonanza won't end anytime soon, but you'd be a fool to ignore the long-term trend in software -- away from incompatible platforms and restrictive programming regimes, and toward write-once, run-anywhere code that works on a variety of devices, without interference from middlemen. As different kinds of mobile devices hit the market, from phones to tablet PCs to smartpens to e-book readers and beyond, developers will find that trend harder to ignore. They'll need to create programs that can work not just on iPhones but on everything. Fortunately, there's an app for that: It's called the Web.