Why Sprint and T-Mobile still believe a merger will happen

[Commentary] SoftBank CEO and Sprint Chairman Masayoshi Son is stepping up his efforts to convince the powers that be that an acquisition of T-Mobile would create a more competitive US mobile market.

Son has a pretty impressive track record of getting what he wants, often by sheer will. Which might help explain why T-Mobile CFO Braxton Carter reportedly suggested recently that a merger with Sprint is inevitable. But the Federal Communications Commission is slated to hold two major spectrum auctions that are each expected to draw much stronger interest from carriers than the recent H Block auction did.

If neither Sprint nor T-Mobile can pony up the cash to compete, Verizon and AT&T could walk away with enough of the airwaves to ensure the current duopoly for years to come. And while the FCC could give smaller carriers and potential newcomers preferential treatment in those auctions, doing so could give Sprint and T-Mobile a way to legally challenge regulators’ claims that competition is alive and well.