Why Verizon needs AT&T/T-Mobile to just disappear

[Commentary] Sprint may have popped open champagne on Nov 22 after the Federal Communications Commission denounced AT&T’s proposed merger with T-Mobile USA and recommended it go to administrative hearings, but Verizon Wireless executives uttered a few sighs of relief as well.

Of all the possible outcomes in the AT&T-Mo fallout, the FCC approving the merger with a laundry list of new regulations would have been the worst-case scenario for Verizon. It appears to have dodged a bullet. The FCC could have required AT&T to divest spectrum and networks in numerous markets; FCC staffers had competitive concerns in 99 of the top 100 markets. It could have imposed deadlines for deployments and stricter requirements on the population and geographic areas those networks covered. It might even have dictated commercial terms on how it used that spectrum, spelling out the terms of data roaming agreements and maybe even imposing restrictions on what AT&T could charge for data service. All of these would have been anathema to Verizon. Why? Because whatever restrictions and stipulations AT&T is forced to abide by if this merger goes through would return to haunt Verizon down the road. Verizon may be sitting pretty on a big fat LTE network today, but it readily admits it must go back to the market for more spectrum at some point. That means acquiring another operator, buying spectrum from a competitor or picking up new licenses at auction. Verizon may even weighing a bid on Sprint. Given the current regulatory environment, such a purchase would be out of the question today. But there are plenty of smaller players Verizon likely is eyeballing. Any future bid Verizon makes on a competitor or spectrum would be clouded by whatever requirements the FCC and Department of Justice would impose on AT&T/T-Mobile today. (Nov 23)