Will cell phones help insurgents? Or the regimes they oppose?

[Commentary] Insurgents cannot decide what to make of cellphones. While some insurgent groups target cellphone towers and demand companies turn towers off at night, others complain when providers are slow to fix network problems and threaten them for poor coverage. This variation reflects the fact that cellphones can hurt insurgents by allowing civilians to more safely share information on rebel activity with the government, but they also help insurgents by facilitating violent collective action, just as they help us all manage our daily lives.

In some cases it is beneficial for governments engaging in counterinsurgency or counterterrorism to facilitate the spread of cellular communications. In others, the government should focus on limiting access to cell phones. To know when governments should do each, we need to know why insurgent groups vary in how they view cell phones. How technology affects political contestation is highly dependent on initial conditions. This should not be surprising, but it bears repeating as it reminds us that technology policy in conflict zones should be made through careful consideration of local conditions, not by reference to grand theories based on averages across many diverse places. In this way, information and communications technology policy in conflict zones looks like all other policies in conflict zones.

[Jacob Shapiro is an Associate Professor in the Woodrow Wilson School and the Department of Politics at Princeton University. David Siegel is an Associate Professor in the Department of Political Science at Duke University]