Your mobile phone may be unlocked. Don't bother cheering

[Commentary] Here are a few things to consider before celebrating the cellphone unlocking news:

1. There isn't a stampede to change carriers: Carriers are already creating shorter-term contracts. But still, the industry churn rate -- the number of people changing carriers -- is about 2 percent. OK, that number may go up if it becomes easier to switch carriers and T-Mobile is trying to woo competitors' customers with its "Uncarrier" campaign. But thanks to the marketing wizardry of Apple, Samsung and other hardware firms, what consumers often want to do is change their devices, not their carriers, as soon as their contracts expire.
2. There is nowhere to go: Mobile phones are often made with technology tailored to the carrier. That means that there are only a few permutations possible in switching carriers with the same phone. A T-Mobile subscriber can move to AT&T and supposedly vice versa. It gets trickier moving to Sprint and Verizon. You might have voice and not data service. This may be something carriers and handset manufacturers will fix, but right now, switching is not seamless.
3. It's typically a bad deal for a consumer to keep their current phone beyond the contract, since the price of the phone is built into the monthly bill. Once the contract expires, carriers don't currently offer a lower monthly rate. This means you are still paying for a phone that you've already, effectively, paid for. Currently, the major carriers don't have a tailored plan for those who bring their own phone. Again, that may change. If people hold on to their phones longer, carriers may see new markets to reach.
4. The more cost-sensitive consumer may lose out: There may be pluses for the consumer on a tight budget. The availability of unlocked phones could help the resale market, for example, where phones are usually cheaper. And Simpson, of Consumer Watchdog, says it could be valuable for consumers to know the true cost of their phone and the costs of those long-term contracts. Even if, he said, "it may mean higher initial costs." That's OK for some. But many people can't fork over $600 for a smartphone at Christmas and then shop for carrier plans. This switch could also raise costs in the prepaid phone market, which is about 30 percent of the U.S. mobile phone market. That could hurt some consumers, especially those with lower incomes who tend to take advantage of these types of phones.

(Nov 29)