How Much Licensed Spectrum is Needed to Meet Future Demands for Network Capacity?

Mobile data demand is exploding, with aggregate data downloaded quadrupling in the last seven years. New and innovative uses enabled by 5G, as well as the prospect of 6G applications, point towards further increases in expected demand for mobile network capacity. Unfortunately, the US spectrum landscape appears to be stalled, with no clear prospects for significant spectrum reallocations in 2023 and insufficient bands under consideration for reallocation in the coming years. This lack of a spectrum pipeline, coupled with the lapse of the Federal Communications Commission auction authority, has raised the prospect of significant capacity constraints in the terrestrial wireless space, and concern that this may limit the US’s ability to be a leader in this area. Extrapolating from historical trends, we project that data traffic on the macro network is expected to increase by over 250% in the next 5 years and by over 500% in the next 10 years. If no new spectrum bands are allocated for wireless use in the next 5-10 years, we estimate that by 2027, the U.S. could face a spectrum deficit of approximately 400 megahertz, and by 2032, this deficit will have more than tripled to over 1,400 megahertz, normalized to lower mid-band equivalent spectrum, licensed at full power.

[This report was prepared by The Brattle Group for CTIA]