Data traffic growth or decline – there's no upside for telecommunications

A fiery debate has erupted in the halls of telecommunications about traffic—the gigabyte rather than vehicular variety. On one side are the mountaineers, who argue data volumes will continue to climb as usage grows and more advanced applications take off. On the other are the dissenting levelers. Led by William Webb, an independent consultant and former Ofcom executive who has written several books on the topic, they foresee a plateauing of consumption as smartphone customers struggle to cram more gigabytes into the day. The levelers are heartened by some evidence of a recent slowdown in growth. The reality seems complicated and nuanced. What's clear, though, is that telecommunications spending on radio access network (RAN) infrastructure, the part that gobbles the biggest share of capex, has dropped in the last couple of years—and dropped sharply.