CCG Consulting

Nokia recently announced that it is introducing radios that will increase both the capabilities and performance of fixed wireless access (FWA) cellular broadband. The technology that probably will have the most impact on wireless performance is the use of MIMO (multiple-input, multiple-output) antenna arrays. Nokia recently announced that it will be deploying Massive-MIMO antennas that will allow for 16 layers of data transmission, up from 4 layers deployed in today’s cellular antennas. These coming improvements are going to mean better performance for FWA.

The results of a recent Technology Policy Institute study feed into the narrative that is rolled out every year by the lobbyists for the biggest internet service providers (ISPs)—that broadband prices are getting cheaper. The big ISPs mean that the price per megabit is getting cheaper—but the study says the absolute prices are getting cheaper. The easiest way to understand my objection is to consider the price of a 100 Mbps broadband product from 2013 to 2024. 

We’re finally seeing many consumer-friendly initiatives from the Biden administration coming to fruition. The White House recently announced a Time is Money initiative that would require corporations to implement customer-friendly practices to eliminate long hold times and excessive paperwork for customers. This is a follow-up to a proposed rule from the Federal Trade Commission in March that would require companies to make it as easy to cancel service as it is to subscribe.

Will a big flurry of Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) grants encounter any big bottlenecks that will slow down the implementation of grant construction? My response is yes, but maybe not the bottlenecks most people expect. I expect some of the following:

Cable companies seem to have turned the corner from continually gaining customers to now losing customers. This is a consequence of increased competition from fiber overbuilders and FWA cellular wireless. In the first quarter of 2024, the sale of FWA cellular slowed down for T-Mobile and Verizon, from 929,000 to 759,000 in the first quarter. But FWA still counts for practically all of the net broadband gains for the quarter. Experts are predicting a much smaller number of total net customer additions for 2024, which is due to two issues.

There are many folks making the argument that the country doesn’t have enough carrier exchange points. An exchange point is a physical location where multiple carriers meet for purposes of exchanging traffic. I don’t know if this is an accurate statistic, but I’ve heard several people claim there are fourteen or fifteen states that don’t have a major exchange point. This might be true if you use the definition of an exchange point to be a place where everybody meets. There is a big downside to internet service providers (ISPs) that are not located close to an internet exchange point (IXP).

I’ve written a lot about the unprecedented success of fixed wireless access (FWA) being sold by cellular carriers. By the end of the first quarter of 2024, T-Mobile and Verizon had accumulated 8.6 million customers nationwide on FWA cellular home broadband. This is an amazing success for a product that was just launched in 2021. The big cable companies have been downplaying the success and capabilities of FWA. They commonly characterize FWA as too slow and inconsistent.

One of the biggest challenges for the Broadband Equity, Access, and Deployment (BEAD) grant is for State Broadband Offices to make sure that every unserved location gets covered by the grants. My understanding of the process is that the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) will not approve the BEAD grants being made by a State until they can demonstrate that every unserved and underserved location will be covered by the grants.

A new broadband trend has quietly entered the market. Both Starlink and T-Mobile are advertising broadband that can be used practically anywhere and are aiming new products at campers, hikers, and others that go to remote locations. According to T-Mobile this is a huge market, with 15 million households that take RV trips each year and 59 people who go camping. T-Mobile says that 40% of these folks would like to be able to do some work while camping.

SAE International, a professional organization for wireless engineers,  sponsored a report at the end of 2023 that says that the U.S. is already facing a shortage of engineers, and that the problem is going to get worse. According to the report, the U.S. needs 400,000 new engineers every year, but one-third of engineering jobs go unfilled, a trend expected to last through 2030. The SAE report lists some of the reasons for the engineering shortfall.