How the Government Could Win the AT&T-Time Warner Case

[Commentary] In 2017, I predicted the government’s case to block the merger of AT&T and Time Warner would most likely be the antitrust case of the decade. That may prove to be an understatement. Since then, a pipeline has filled with megadeals awaiting the case’s outcome, which the judge presiding over the fight has said will come in less than two weeks (before June 15). Gene Kimmelman, former general counsel for the Justice Department’s antitrust division and chief executive of Public Knowledge, an advocate for an open internet, predicted that if AT&T wins, “the floodgates could really open up.” Many on Wall Street seem to have decided that an AT&T victory is all but a sure thing. Raising the government’s degree of difficulty: To completely block the deal, the Justice Department must prove not only that the merger violates the law, but that less drastic remedies, such as restrictions on what AT&T can do with Time Warner programming, won’t be effective. So a government win would be considered a major upset. That doesn’t mean it can’t happen.