How Much Television Can the TV Biz -- and Viewers -- Handle?

Industry executives are quietly starting to use the B-word -- “bubble” -- in surveying the landscape of scripted shows across the dozens of broadcast, cable and digital outlets that are serving up original programming.

That growth has been fueled by the windfall of licensing revenue from expanding international sales and digital platforms that barely existed a decade ago. But after a more than 1,000% spike since 1999 in the number of scripted series produced for just pay and basic cable, there are growing concerns, even among those in the production world, about the unwelcome consequences of so much capital chasing talent, viewers and, most important, off-network profits.

Industry veterans said that the biggest issues resulting from the gusher of production include:

• A significant spike in the cost of securing top talent and sought-after source material, from hot scripts to life rights to existing books and movies.
• Rising prices for crews, equipment, stages and locations, among other necessary ingredients for production.
• Higher demand for promotional time coupled with declining ratings for linear channels, making marketing campaigns more costly and less effective.
• Top cable nets cutting back on off-network buys because of increased commitments to original programming.
• Netflix gaining outsized influence due to its growing clout as an off-net buyer.